Sabotage, disinformation and great-power rivalry: are Norway’s ocean industries prepared?

Norway’s security environment is changing. “The distinction between war and peace has become blurred,” says Director of Intelligence Nils Andreas Stensønes. Northern Norway stands at the centre of this shift, and public debate is increasingly shaped by issues such as total defence, great-power politics and war. Relations with Russia have fundamentally changed, and new threats require adaptation and cooperation—perhaps especially for the ocean industries in the north.

Growing risk of sabotage and digital threats

This month, the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST), the National Security Authority (NSM) and the Intelligence Service presented their annual threat assessments. PST concludes that it is likely Russia will attempt sabotage operations against Norway this year. Previous attacks on the fibre-optic cable to Svalbard and the Nord Stream pipelines show how vulnerable critical infrastructure can be. Norwegian authorities are aware of 40 planned or carried-out sabotage actions in Western countries in 2024.

Northern Norway is particularly exposed to attacks on critical infrastructure. Increasing GPS jamming in East Finnmark is creating uncertainty, and Norwegian energy infrastructure may be a potential target. PST notes that civilian vessels can be used to map infrastructure on the seabed and along the coast.

Geopolitics and industry – a new reality

Security developments affect economic activity, but they also create new opportunities. Geopolitics has become industrial policy, and interest in the High North is growing. The ocean industries account for a significant share of Norwegian value creation, dominated by oil and gas, seafood and shipping.

What happens if a sabotage operation disrupts gas exports to Europe or salmon exports to Asia? PST describes scenarios in which civilian vessels are used by foreign intelligence services to test Norway’s maritime preparedness. Are we ready to handle such situations? Will the new security landscape weaken investment in northern industries?

Disinformation and conflict potential

Disinformation campaigns can influence Norwegian public opinion, for example regarding continued support for Ukraine. Russia may also map structural and human vulnerabilities. Existing conflicts between fisheries, aquaculture and offshore wind could be exacerbated by external interference.

Leonard Cohen once said, “There is a crack in everything.” But instead of letting in light, such cracks can create space for increased division. To strengthen resilience, we must acknowledge and address our vulnerabilities. Competence, local knowledge and the role of civil society are crucial for improved preparedness—alongside cooperation across sectors.

A diverse set of challenges

The ocean industries are diverse, and the threats they face vary accordingly. What they share is a need for better coordination and experience-sharing to meet the new reality. This is particularly true for search and rescue, where Norway’s geography makes operations especially complex. Issues such as disinformation, sabotage and preparedness also require greater information-sharing. Public authorities and private actors alike must work more closely together to ensure adequate readiness.

What do we do now?

To meet the new security challenges, the following are needed:

1. Better information-sharing between authorities, industry and research communities on the security situation.
2. Increased investment in communications, transport and preparedness infrastructure to build resilience.
3. Greater risk awareness across the ocean industries.
4. Follow-up of PST recommendations, including reporting suspicious incidents.

The Centre for the Ocean and the Arctic will bring key actors together in Bodø during the High North Dialogue in March to strengthen cooperation and identify solutions. There is urgency to act—for security and for value creation at sea.